|Uncertainty in Environmental Modelling
of Model Evaluation Tools
A catalog of nearly 70 model-independent tools, classified according
to their intended use: (1) data analysis, (2) parameter estimation,
(3) identifiability analysis, (4) sensitivity analysis, (5) uncertainty
analysis, (6) multi-model analysis, and (7) Bayesian networks. (Last
updated Feb. 2009) - Additions and corrections are encouraged!
- TAUC - Trans-Atlantic Uncertainty
A 3 day meeting between researchers and policy-makers from across
North America and Europe. (Last Updated Feb. 2008)
and Precaution in Environmental Management
A 3-day international symposium ''focusing in particular on the uncertainty
and ignorance associated with predictions in science for policy, and
on examining the implications of the Precautionary Principle from
the scientific, ethical and legal perspectives." Held in Copenhagen,
June 7-9, 2004, with summary
in EM&S (Environmental Modelling & Software).
A resource for exchange of views and education in
sustainability and the management of uncertainty. Contains news items,
reports, lectures, tutorials, and software downloads.
- PUB - Predictions in
"Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB) is an initiative...aimed at
uncertainty reduction in hydrological practice." PUB sponsored a 'kick-off'
workshop in 2004, titled
Uncertainty Analysis in Environmental Modeling.
- Influential Papers
- Uncertainty in the environmental modelling process - A framework
and guidance. 2007. Environmental Modelling & Software.
vol. 22, no .11, pg. 1543-1556, by JC Refsgaard , JP van der Sluijs,
AL Hojberg , and PA Van rolleghem. (paper)
- A manifesto for the equifinality thesis. 2006. Journal of
Hydrology, vol. 320, no. 1-2, pg. 18-36, by K Beven. (paper)
- Why environmental scientists are becoming Bayesians. 2005. Ecology
Letters, vol. 8, pg. 2-14, by JS Clark. (paper)
- Verification, validation, and confirmation of numerical models
in the earth sciences. 1994. Science, vol. 263, no. 5147,
pg. 641-646, by N Oreskes, K Shrader-Frechette, and K Belitz.(paper)
- Ground-water models cannot be validated. 1992. Advances in
Water Resources, vol. 15, no. 1, pg. 75-83, by LF Konikow,
and JD Bredehoeft. (paper)
- Water quality modeling: a review of the analysis of uncertainty.
1987. Water Resources Research, vol. 23, no. 8, pg. 1393-1442,
by MB Beck. (paper)
|Integrated Environmental Modelling
UW Environmental Modelling and Analysis Group
A collection of researchers dedicated to improving the science and
practice of simulation modelling of the natural environment.
BASINS - Better Assessment Science Integrating Point
& Nonpoint Sources
"A multi-purpose environmental analysis system that integrates a
geographical information system (GIS), national watershed data,
and state-of-the-art environmental assessment and modeling tools
into one convenient package."
CCA - Common Component Architecture
"A component architecture defining standards necessary for the interoperation
of components developed in the context of different frameworks."
CCSM - Community Climate System Model
"A fully-coupled, global climate model that...includes models of
the atmosphere, land surface, ocean, and sea ice."
CHyMP - Community Hydrologic Modeling Platform
"Common simulation software designed to serve the diverse needs
of [the hydrology] community, and to be advanced through contributions
from the community."
CHPS - Community Hydrologic Prediction System
"A software infrastructure, built on standard software packages
and protocols, and open data modeling standards... provides the
basis from which new and existing hydraulic and hydrologic models
and data can be shared within a broader hydrologic community. "
CSDMS - Community Surface Dynamics Modeling System
"Integrated software modules that predict the movement of fluids,
and the flux (production, erosion, transport, and deposition) of
sediment and solutes in landscapes and their sedimentary basins."
CSTMS - Community/Coastal Sediment Transport Modeling
"An open-source model that couples hydrodynamics (circulation and
waves), sediment transport, and morphodynamics."
ESMF - Earth System Modeling Framework
"Defines an architecture for composing complex, coupled modeling
systems and includes data structures and utilities for developing
FRAMES - Framework for Risk Analysis of Multimedia Environmental
A software infrastructure for integrating models and modeling tools.
"A 3D model for simulating flow and contaminant transport in integrated
surface/subsurface flow systems."
InHM - Integrated Hydrology Model
"Integrates surface and subsurface flow and transport processes
in one coherent framework, eliminating iterative coupling between
surface and subsurface models through the use of physically-based
first-order flux relationships." - a precursor of HydroGeoSphere
MENTOR - Modelling Environmental for Total Risk Studies
"An evolving open modeling support system which can also
be described as an expandable computational toolbox."
MESH - Modélisation Environmentale Communautaire, Surface
A component of Environment Canada's community environmental modelling
system (MEC), MESH couples land surface and hydrology models and
is designed for regional hydrological modeling.
MIMES - Multi-scale Integrated Models of Ecosystem Services
"A suite of models that enables understanding of the contributions
of ecosystem services by quantifying the effects of varying environmental
conditions derived from land use change."
OMS - Object Modelling System
"A library of alternate science and database modules, which facilitates
the assembly of a modeling package, tailored to the problem, data
constraints, and scale of application."
OpenMI - Open Modelling Interface
"Provides a standard interface, which allows models to exchange
data with each other and other modelling tools on a time step by
time step basis as they run."
ParFlow - Parallel Flow Simulator
"An integrated, parallel watershed model that makes use of high-performance
computing to simulate surface and subsurface fluid flow...ParFlow
has also been fully-coupled to a land surface model (CLM) and to
a mesoscale atmospheric model (ARPS)."
PIHM - Penn State Integrated Hydrologic Modeling System
"A multiprocess, multi-scale hydrologic model where the major hydrological
processes are fully coupled using the semi-discrete finite volume
PRISM - Partnership for Research Infrastructures in earth
"Provides the Earth System Modelling community with a forum to promote
shared software infrastructure tools."
RHESSys - Regional Hydro-Ecologic Simulation System
"A GIS-based, hydro-ecological modeling framework designed to simulate
carbon, water and nutrient fluxes."
tRIBS - TIN-based Real-time Integrated Basin Simulator
"A physically-based, distributed hydrologic model ...that emphasizes
the dynamic relationship between a partially saturated vadose zone
and the land surface response to the continuous storm and interstorm